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We only have to fill in 425 Brackets Each to Profit Buffet’s Billion. The Science of Basketball

We only have to fill in 425 Brackets Each to Profit Buffet’s Billion. The Science of Basketball

Warren Buffett’s Bracket Challenge* has placed more of a limelight than usual on March Madness, the NCAA basketball that is annual competition.

The Science of Basketball

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Will your bracket be described as a slam dunk? Image: Acid Pix, via flickr.

Warren Buffett’s Bracket Challenge* has placed much more of a limelight than usual on March Madness, the NCAA basketball that is annual competition. Buffett has provided a billion bucks to anybody who precisely predicts the results of most 63 games when you look at the competition. You will find 2 feasible results of each and every game and for that reason 2 63 — 9,223,372,036,854,775,808, or about 9 quintillion—different brackets we could produce, offering us a 1 in 9 quintillion potential for winning. Not too hot.

But that estimate assumes that every bracket is similarly more likely to win, that will be obviously false. Even though you understand next to nothing about basketball, you aren’t likely to select a bracket which includes the 16 seeds within the Final Four. Jeff Bergen, a mathematics teacher at DePaul University, estimates that there surely is a 1 in 128 billion opportunity that in the event that you have good level of baseball knowledge, you are going to select a proper bracket. Nevertheless perhaps perhaps not great, but a great deal more positive than 1 in 9 quintillion. Bergen explained their thinking in a video clip he put on YouTube month that is last.

Bergen’s estimates are ballpark figures, centered on rough historic averages of just how often times each seed has won. Their figure of just one in 128 billion does not mean that there’s a specific collection of 128 billion brackets that absolutely provides the bracket that is winning but we’re able to utilize their quotes to determine which 128 billion brackets are usually to win. (more…)